Reliability Governance: Why Missing Data Lowers Confidence

How trustworthy a valuation is depends on how solid its data and reasoning are. The engine institutionalizes this through "reliability governance"—it would rather say "there is still something missing here" than hand you a conclusion that looks certain but is in fact ungrounded.

Retrieval-Before-Provisional

For every valuation, the engine keeps a list of critical information that "must be verified first" (such as the latest earnings, valuation history, guidance, and regulatory and risk status). Until these critical items are all verified—or explicitly marked "retrieved but not found"—the conclusion can only be Provisional and cannot be saved as a formal card. In other words, when data is missing it goes and looks, and if it cannot find it, it says so honestly, rather than silently fabricating one.

Every Number Carries a Source Status

For every gap, the engine marks its status—whether it comes from official filings, a public third party, or has been retrieved but not currently found and needs your input. This lets you see at a glance whether a number is documented or temporarily blank, rather than having the gap quietly hidden.

“Missing information is not the danger; pretending nothing is missing is.”— Institutional Research Principle

Reliability Cap

When certain critical work is missing (for instance, the cross-validation that should have been done was not, a key valuation anchor is absent, or no formal Locked Card has been formed), the engine automatically lowers the reliability of the conclusion and writes the reason in the report rather than concealing it. When reliability is insufficient, the action label will not go as far as "buy / overweight"—a guardrail against overconfidence.

Formal vs. Provisional

Formal: the retrieval gate is passed, the required audit modules are complete, it can be saved as a Locked Card, and it can serve as the baseline for a later "data refresh." Provisional: modules or evidence are missing, so it cannot serve as a formal record and cannot anchor a data refresh. When you see Provisional, you should know: this is a work in progress—do not use it for high-confidence decisions.

How It Shows Up in the Report

The report gives a reliability score and the reason for any cap. This "honesty about uncertainty" is precisely what distinguishes this site from "casually quoting a target price"—and it is the baseline of institutional-grade research.